UK: Decline in barley availability more than offset by fall in demand in 2023/24

The 2023/24 Early Balance Sheets for wheat and barley were published on October 17, which provide a first look at supply and demand for the season ahead. For wheat, a yearly fall in availability, combined with a climb in domestic consumption, sees a much tighter balance than the 2022/23 season. For barley, declines in availability are more than offset by a fall in demand; this leads to expectations of a heavier barley balance this season compared to last, AHDB reported.

At 6.021 Mt, total domestic consumption of barley is estimated down 120 Kt on the year. Despite an anticipated rise (up 1%) in human and industrial consumption, a 3% decline in barley usage for animal feed outweighs these gains.

Human and industrial barley usage is estimated to reach 1.991 Mt this season, up 11 Kt on the year; if realised, this will be the highest since the late 1990s. Anecdotal reports suggest the cost-of-living crisis is expected to impact brewing demand, but demand for distilling will remain robust due to increased capacity coming online last season.

Usage of barley for animal feed is forecast to decline by 129 Kt on the year, to sit at 3.814 Mt. The reason for this is that wheat and maize are expected to price more competitively than barley this season, meaning barley inclusions in rations have been reduced.