World: Barley crop estimate up 0.2 mln tonnes this month

RMI Analytics’ world barley production estimate for 2023/24 is increased by 0.2 mln tonnes to 140.7 mln with the northern hemisphere harvest finalized.

The minor change is coming in Australia, where the recent RMI Insight Tour explored a good crop. The risk of El Nino weather pushing temperatures higher and reducing rainfall is still omnipresent, but for this year’s barley crop the analysts feel it is close enough to maturity for any impact to be minimal. The USDA reduced Australia’s wheat yield due to hot/dry concerns.

Argentina is the other key crop to monitor, as conditions there are moving towards drier but the crop is still looking good at this time.

As world barley production in 2023 sits near a 10-year low in supply, the supply and demand is still rather balanced, due to the current weak demand environment which is helping to offset the smaller barley supply. The quality challenges in Canada and Denmark/Sweden are being managed but do leave the situation tight, with little room for flexibility should processing issues develop, the analysts said.