World carryover stocks of barley are forecast by IGC (Feb 28) at 27.4 million tonnes (21.4 million tonnes) at the end of 2004/05, down by 0.3 million tonnes from last month’s figure. Much of the steep year-on-year increase in global stocks reflects an almost doubling of the projected EU carryover. This was unusually low at the end of 2003/04, at just 4.2 million tonnes, but large supplies and limited demand could see it reach 7.9 million tonnes at the end of June 2005. The projection for the EU is cut by 0.4 million tonnes from last month, mostly because of higher forecast exports. A big increase in stocks is also expected in Canada. Smaller feed use means these are revised up by 0.5 million tonnes this month, to 3.7 million tonnes (2.1 million tonnes), the largest in 17 years. Higher than previously estimated domestic and export demand cuts the forecast for Australia slightly, to 0.2 million tonnes (0.3 million tonnes). In the CIS, lower estimated production in Belarus cuts closing stocks by 0.3 million tonnes, to 0.4 million tonnes (0.6 million tonnes). Smaller than anticipated barley exports by Russia lifts the carryover by 0.6 million tonnes, to 3.1 million tonnes, unchanged from last year, but Ukraine’s exports are exceeding expectations and projected stocks are therefore trimmed by 0.5 million tonnes, to 1.0 million tonnes (0.5 million tonnes).

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