Australia: Barley crop forecast slightly down at 10.62 mln tonnes
Western Australia and Victoria received a further splash of moisture which further extends the good growing conditions in these key barley regions with slightly less rain in South Australia, RMI Analytics said in their late September report.
Overall, recent high temperatures and a general drying trend from the El Nino conditions could still have a bearing on the final yields, the analysts believe. Their crop forecast for Australian barley is down slightly, to 10.62 mln tonnes, down from 10.84 mln in the previous report earlier this month.
Prior to the May 2020 tariff introduction, China’s imports were already declining (due to the drought years 2017-2019), from the peak market share at 75% in crop 2016. The question turns to Australia’s market share going forward in terms of Chinese imports, where the total barley imports averaged 8.7 mln tonnes for the past three years.
Crop 2023 is forecast at 7.5 mln tonnes while the high point was 9.4 mln tonnes in crop 2021. A move to the 3-year average for China’s barley imports would add a degree of bullishness to a tight global barley market. Much of Chinese barley is for feed use with a smaller portion used for malting.
Australian barley prices are steady for both feed and malting barley. The estimate for trade already booked into China is 1.4 mln tonnes, with more than 50% from crop 2022, with the balance from crop 2023. The Chinese purchases are sourced from Western Australia, South Australia, and Victoria, with roughly 75% feed barley and 25% malting/FAQ quality.
There are some reports of slightly better crop results in central New South Wales, which would support meeting east-coast malting barley needs, the analysts said.
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