North America: Favourable weather in Canada could result in larger barley crop than expected

Weather over the past two weeks has been generally favourable and has advanced harvest across Canada with barley yields reported as slightly better than expected, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

This may increase crop size slightly when confirmed. For now, the analysts’ estimate remains at 7.87 mln tonnes.

Exports have started rather quietly but are expected to increase in October-December, but then decline in 2024, due to the smaller crop size.

As the major growth market in North America, Mexico’s ability to increase local barley production above 1 mln tonnes of malting quality for local plants is an ongoing challenge.

Canadian barley prices are down slightly following the global trend. With China expected to shift demand to Australia, exports from Canada have a challenge in finding replacement markets. As a context, the crop 2022 exports to China at 2.6 mln tonnes represented just over 80% of total exports.

Continued weaker domestic feed barley prices have made feed barley competitive to imported corn, and could help grain exporters being more competitive in export channels, but it will be difficult under the smaller crop dynamics.

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