Argentina: Barley crop forecast remains at 4.59 mln tonnes on good weather conditions

Argentina’s barley crop development story remains very positive, as limited rain fell in southern Buenos Aires province, but much-needed rains fell in the areas most needing the moisture, RMI Analytics said in their early September report.

The analysts’ forecast for the nation’s barley crop remains at 4.59 mln tonnes, with industry estimates in the range of 4.4-5 mln tonnes. It remains important to remember that seeding took place later overall in the normal planting window, leaving crop development slightly behind ‘normal’ but otherwise the current situation is very positive.

Farmer selling remains very low and as a result export declaration trail considerably low from year ago levels (and remain predominantly FAQ barley). There is some concern from exporters about the potential loss of export demand to China, now that Australia has restarted exports there.

RMI Analytics’ barley exports forecast for Argentina remains strong as their global S&D view for malting barley remains relatively tight and it is expected Argentina will remain a sizeable player in the export barley flows. As a result, the ending stocks forecast remains unchanged, despite the expected bounce in crop production.

Last week photos from Brazil showed an amazing crop progress to-date, and if the weather cooperates, a good local crop is potentially in the works, the analysts said.

In limited trade activity, prices are steady, with malting barley drifting slightly lower with some trade reported. Old crop activity has dried up, although traders feel a Panamax cargo volume still exists if any immediate demand materializes.

FAS prices are stronger for FAQ but with little selling, as farmers (and traders) await the October election which could bring in a new government and with that an end or a reduction in export taxes could be realized.

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