Australia: Barley crop forecast maintained at 10.84 mln tonnes

Despite ongoing receipt of sporadic rainfall in Australia, there are indicators that the long anticipated arrival of the El Nino weather phenomena is gradually taking place. However, the continued good soil moisture levels in most regions give ongoing optimism for a barley crop of 10.84 mln tonnes, RMI Analytics said in their early September report.

From a global barley perspective, the continued good development of this crop is a positive, as a strong 6.8 mln tonnes of exports are expected.

Northern New South Wales and southern Queensland continue to struggle with drought conditions. The regional breakdown for production shows Western Australia leading production but the crop is enduring some dryness pockets. Victoria looks very good, and South Australia is also good. The conditions in New South Wales and Queensland require grain transfers from other production regions, the analysts said.

Australian barley prices are firming across the board for malting and feed barley, as export activity ramps up to China (1 mln tonnes rumoured to have been traded already) while farmer selling is limited. Australian prices are in alignment to Argentina for most competitive origin.

The slow development of the El Nino weather pattern is creating a bit of uncertainty in the market but the general view is the crop can manage to get reasonably through to maturity even if conditions turn drier.

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