World: Barley production forecast slightly up but not due to increased crops expectations in major producing nations

World barley production forecast sees a slight increase of 0.5 mln tonnes to 138.9 mln tonnes with the change coming entirely from crops outside the six major barley producers (Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU-27 + UK, Ukraine, Russia), RMI Analytics said in their early September report.

At nearly 75% of global barley production, these six major producers drive the global supply and demand. The global drop in crop 2023 barley supply is almost entirely coming from these important regions and slightly concerning is the fact that all regions are down, except for Argentina which is expected to rebound by 0.49 mln tonnes. The forecast for Australian barley crop is down 3.38 mln tonnes (on lower area), that for Russia is 2.91 mln tonnes down (lower area and yields), Canada is 2.08 mln tonnes down (drought), Ukraine minus 1.3 mln tonnes (lower area and yields), and the EU+UK are 4.52 mln tonnes down (on lower area and drought impact), the analysts said.

It will be important for barley to rebound in 2024 after the current struggle for area and weather-related impact.

The drop in supply in crop 2023 is expected to keep volatility and market sensitivity at elevated levels through to crop 2024. The final malting barley quality result is still to be fully validated and from that the market can adjust.

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