World: World barley crop forecast declines further to 138.7 mln tonnes

The supply side of the world’s barley balance sheet continues to dominate the current supply chain news, as production declines further, RMI Analytics said in their late July report, reducing their forecast for the global barley crop by 2.3 mln tonnes to 138.7 mln.

The decline resulted from the following changes:

Reduced crops in the EU+UK (-0.1 mln tonnes), Canada (-0.73 mln tonnes), Russia (-0.63 mln tonnes), Ukraine (-0.4 mln tonnes) due to drought / hot weather;

Offsetting increases in production are forecast for Australia (+0.2 mln tonnes), Argentina (+0.29 mln) due to improving conditions.

This puts world ending stocks of barley at a long-term low level and in particular the two-row spring barley situation is now much tighter on a global basis.

Demand for malt (and therefore barley) remains a big question across the supply chain, as 2023 malt shipments have been rather disappointing so far.

The world’s barley situation has experienced a number of challenges in crop 2023 with actual outcomes now being validated through harvest results. In July alone, RMI has seen the impacts in Scandinavia and the UK, while monitoring the dryness in Canada and the US continues. The around 13 mln tonnes reduction from crop 2022 production is significant and increases volatility for crop 2023.

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