Europe: Barley crop forecast lowered due to hot and dry conditions in Europe

On the back of hot and dry weather conditions, RMI Analytics forecast for the EU and UK barley crop is lowered to 56.02 mln tonnes, the analysts said in their latest report.

Drought in Denmark and Sweden has reduced yield potential (there has been rain this week), while heavy rain in Spain is too late to save the crop and might further deteriorate the quality.

Ukraine’s crop is reduced slightly, while Russia’s forecast is unchanged.

Europe’s barley crop is becoming a mix of varied results, with problem areas (Spain, Scandinavia) offset by good prospects in France, Germany, and the UK. Adding further disparity is the fact that beneficial rains are quite variable, (hit and miss) leading to a widening range of crop results.

The approaching start of France’s winter barley harvest will add some stability to markets but the real focus is on the expected lower spring barley yields in July.

For crop 2023, both Creil and Mosel barley prices have rapidly spiked in response to dry weather concerns across northern Europe, including the Baltic region with a particular focus upon Denmark and Sweden, where yield potential has dropped. In the UK, good rain has been received this week which is helping secure the barley crop, but prices are still firming in alignment.