World: Barley crop forecast reduced on Australia and Ukraine crop concerns

RMI Analytics have reduced their crop 2023 production forecast to 142.6 mln tonnes – down 0.4 mln tonnes since the previous forecast at the end of May.

Australia’s crop forecast is reduced slightly, despite the crop being planted, due to forecasts for a negative El Nino drought impact for barley and wheat production which increases the risk for yield and quality outcomes.

Ukraine’s production forecast is reduced further as the conflict continues and recent dam explosion will reduce arable land due to extreme flooding.

The shrinking crop forecast for 2023 reduces barley ending stocks again. On top of the fundamental supply and demand tightening, a weather market is developing with concerns about crop conditions in France and Denmark, and in the long-term for Australia, the analysts said.