Australia: Barley crop forecast remains at 10.88 mln tonnes as favourable rains help moisture conditions

Ahead of planting, moisture conditions in Australia are being helped by favourable rains. RMI Analytics’ barley crop 2023 forecast for the nation remains at 10.88 mln tonnes, the analysts said in their latest report.

Ending stocks forecast remains comfortable after three successive crops of around 14 mln tonnes and on the back of very strong and necessary export activity.

Barley export levels are expected to drop with crop 2023, despite the prospects for re-starting Chinese shipments, due mainly to a smaller crop and a shift of feed barley demand (e.g. Middle East) back to European origins. We’ll have to wait and see whether the development of new malting barley customers, like Mexico, is retained by Australia or shift elsewhere as trade flows are adjusted by China.

Australian barley prices are weaker as the market awaits word regarding the formal cancellation of the Chinese tariff. Indications are USD290-300/tonne CFR China as the trade prepares for this eventuality. Meanwhile trade activity is weak and farmers are getting busy with planting activity.

The Reserve Bank of Australia made a surprise announcement of a further interest rate hike (to 3.85%, from 3.6%) which is providing some support to the USD/AUD exchange rate.

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