USA: Craft beer segment estimated to have been down 4.8% in dollars in 2022

The craft segment has been down the last two years in the US and was down 4.8% in dollars in 2022, says Scott Scanlon, executive vice president of BevAl Vertical at Information Resources Inc. (IRI), Chicago.

For the 52 weeks ending Jan. 1 [2023], craft beer sales totaled $4.7 billion, a 4.7% decrease, in total U.S. multi-outlets. Case sales were down 8.6% during that timeframe.

Jon Berg, vice president of Beverage Alcohol Thought Leadership at Chicago-based NielsenIQ, notes not just the beer segment’s sales decline but that it is down to a 12% share for the overall beer market.

Success is always specific to a company and regional factors are usually more important than national trends, but craft beer sales (we’re talking packaged product here vs. taproom sales) could very well continue to contract in 2023 — for a variety of factors — inflation, less beer consumption overall, fierce competition from other craft breweries, fierce competition from other beverage alcohol (spirits to ready-to-drink cocktails) and an aging out of hardcore fans (a reason the non-alcoholic segment is growing).

Another confirmation of this came this week via the National Beer Wholesalers Association‘s (NBWA) March 2023 Beer Purchaser’ Index (BPI). The NBWA is a trade association for America’s beer distributors, and the BPI is an informal monthly statistical release giving distributors a timely and reliable indicator of industry beer purchasing activity. The BPI is a forward-looking indicator for the industry to measure expected beer demand — one month forward — in the marketplace. A reading greater than 50 indicates the segment is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates the segment is contracting.

While the March BPI shows a continued shift towards a more predictable environment for the beer industry in 2023 overall, it also showed distributor demand for the craft segment is at a serious lull. While the March BPI/ARI ratio of 50/51 represents a slight regression from February’s 54/46, a fully neutral (50/50) ratio can indicate more predictable ordering and inventory levels. Following several tumultuous and unpredictable years, a stable and balanced environment is welcome news for the beer industry, but these craft numbers hit hard.

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