World: Focus shifts to barley crop 2023 with trade mostly finished for crop 2022
At this time of the year, the focus is clearly on barley crop 2023 with trade mostly finished for crop 2022, RMI Analytics said earlier this month.
The biggest news for the industry has been the arrival of rain across most of Europe, and particularly in France. Previous concerns about dry conditions are being addressed, and this is boosting confidence in the attainment of the forecast barley production.
Production in crop 2023 at 147.1 mln tonnes is now more secure given the expectation that a reasonable European crop outcome is forthcoming, based upon winter barley conditions and good spring barley planting progress.
Russia is not expected to match record yields achieved in 2022, and the conflict in Ukraine continues to suppress production there. Australian production should shift lower, and Argentina rebound from the 2022 drought is minimal (+0.6 mln tonnes) in the global context, the analysts said.
The barley production result in 2022 is providing a degree of comfort to the supply chain as the market awaits further news on crop 2023 development. That being said, the concern about dryness in France, discussed over the past month, reminds us of the underlying nervousness toward crop 2023, given the lower overall production forecast 4.6 mln tonnes lower than in 2022.
RMI Analytics’ expectations are that the market will continue to respond with increased volatility upon the receipt of positive or negative news regarding crop development.
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