World: Analysts expect slightly smaller barley crop in 2023
After an overall good barley crop 2022 outcome, there is a reasonably good global supply and demand balance in place. However, there are disruptions which continue to influence the market with the ongoing Ukraine war and a less than ideal crop result in Argentina, RMI Analytics said in their early January report.
On the positive side, a rebound in North American barley production and another large Australian crop offers some stability in the barley market.
With the start of 2023, the analysts have turned their attention to crop 2023 with an early estimation of the new crop supply and demand. Global barley production is expected to drop to 147.5 mln tonnes as planted area is reduced, mainly due to strong competition from wheat. In addition, the very good yield results in Russia and Australia should return to their long-term averages.
The six major global barley producing regions are forecast to produce 4.5 mln tonnes less barley in 2023, a decrease which transfers directly to total world production. With a slight reduction in feed usage, driven by an expectation of improved global corn and wheat production, and leaving ending stocks rather stable year-over-year.
At this very early stage in the crop 2023 cycle, the current situation is generally positive. Questions remain around Ukraine’s ability to maintain agricultural production as the war continues, but the expectation is for the rest of the world to produce normal crops. Winter barley crop development in Europe is good, offering an early signal towards a normal outcome.
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