World: Barley supply and demand balance mostly unchanged while waiting for crop results from southern hemisphere

The world barley supply and demand balance is mostly unchanged as the final results from the southern hemisphere are awaited, RMI Analytics said in their early December report.

Global barley production forecast is slightly up at 150.5 mln tonnes. Although this represents a slight rebound from crop 2021, it falls short of the big crop results in 2019 and 2020.

Ending stocks of barley also slightly rebounded in crop 2022 but remain on a downward trend which is likely to continue, the analysts said.

For crop 2023, barley faces stiff competition from other crops (e.g. wheat), and ongoing concerns about Ukraine production, while above average yields (e. g. UK and Russia) are not assured to repeat in 2023.

The situation with Argentina and Australia (unfavourable weather) leaves the malting barley situation globally a bit tighter than expected 1-2 months ago. Brewers and maltsters appear to be well covered for the time being, but there is a view that 2023 is not completely covered and any remaining open demand faces a smaller availability of malting quality barley. Slightly encouraging are early harvest results in Australia, and Argentina rains are helping final filling.