World: Barley production forecast increased to 150.4 mln tonnes

A few minor adjustments to barley production (Russia and EU-27 up; Argentina down) raises slightly the overall global barley production forecast for 2022/23 to 150.4 mln tonnes, RMI Analytics said in their early November report.

Despite this increase in production, the availability of quality malting barley is declining (e.g. Australia and Argentina) due to weather-related impacts from two extremes: drought in Argentina and flooding in Australia. On top of the southern hemisphere issues with barley production, the situation in Ukraine as Russia has stepped out of the agreement which allows a ‘grain corridor’ to operate (and then re-entered it). Russia still holds an immense surplus of wheat and barley, after a great crop result.

The last four global barley crops are above the average production and indicate that barley is well-positioned from a farmer perspective. In crop 2023, barley may gain a small increase in area, the analysts said.

A rebound to normal production in Ukraine would potentially return production to 153-155 mln tonnes, bringing with it a more comfortable supply & demand balance.

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