World: Grain production and carryover stocks revised upward

Total grains production and carryover stocks for the 2022-23 marketing year were revised upward in the International Grains Council’s latest Grain Market Report released on Sept. 22, with increases in global wheat and barley output more than compensating for a reduction in corn outturn.

The IGC projects total grains production at 2.256 billion tonnes, up from 2.248 billion in August but still 2% lower than the 2021-22 total of 2.291 billion tonnes.

The Council sees year-on-year declines in corn (down 51 million tonnes) and sorghum (down 2 million tonnes) but projects increases in wheat (up 10 million) and barley (up 3 million).

Meanwhile, the IGC said total grains consumption is forecast to decline for the first time since 2015-16, down 1% from the previous year on reduced demand for feed maize, while growth in food and industrial uptake is projected to be slower than average.

“Even so, because of a sharper drop in supply, cumulative ending stocks are set to tighten, pegged 3% lower year-on-year, at 587 million tonnes,” the IGC said.

The outlook for soybean production in 2022-23 is bullish, with the IGC forecasting a 10% increase year-on-year, at a record 387 million tonnes.

“While solid acreage gains are anticipated, the outlook hinges on a rebound in yields in South America, particularly in Brazil and Paraguay, following the prior season’s poor results,” the IGC said.

Following a record year of production in 2021-22, global rice output is forecast to contract by 2%, to 508 million tonnes, on potentially smaller outturns in Asia, including in India, the Council said.

Linked to gains in wheat, corn and rice, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index, which measures grains and oilseeds prices, rose by 2% in the five weeks since the August report and is up 11% from 2021-22.

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