Argentina: Barley crop forecast held at 5.4 mln tonnes

Dry areas of Argentina did not receive rain, while Uruguay and the far south of Brazil got hit with heavy rains during the last couple of weeks, RMI Analytics said in their early July report.

With planting advancing in Argentina, the dryness may become a barley yield concern but for now the analysts hold their production estimate at 5.4 mln tonnes.

Export licences booked for crop 2021 are already 3.5 mln tonnes, up 0.1 mln this month. An export of 3.7 mln tonnes is still possible. This leaves Argentina stocks at nearly zero heading into crop 2022.

Argentina’s Economy Minister abruptly resigned last week, adding uncertainty and further peso devaluation. Farmer selling could be reduced further as a result.

Overall Argentina barley prices are down following the global trend but the level of trade activity is extremely low. Interest remains from Brazil and China for old crop but not traded as yet, as crop 2021 is at USD5/tonne premium over new crop values.

Malting barley is better positioned with farmers on this price move lower, and along with cheaper fertilizer prices, farmers may shift attention to gaining malting barley selection. Wheat prices are weaker (below barley).

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