Canada: For 2005-2005 Canada barley production is estimated by Statistics Canada to increase by 7% due to higher yields, despite lower seeded area, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) posted on January 14. Supplies are forecast to increase by 11% due to higher production and carry-in stocks. Feed use of barley is projected to increase, due to higher supplies in western Canada and increased shipments to eastern Canada. Exports of malting barley are expected to drop significantly as lower crop quality reduces the selection rates, although import demand from China is projected to recover. Exports of feed barley are also expected to decrease due to competitions from Europe and relatively low overseas prices, despite increased supplies and low prices in Canada. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase sharply.
Off-Board feed barley prices are expected to decrease by about C$25/t from 2003-04 to C$110/t, due to increased domestic supplies and lower US corn prices. The CWB Dec. PRO for No.1 CW feed barley is C$117/t and C$110/t, I/S VC/SL, for pool A and B, respectively, compared to C$169.21/t for 2003-04. The PRO for Special Select Two Row designated barley is C$178/t, versus C$200.70/t for 2003-04, due to higher supplies in Europe. OATS Production decreased marginally, as higher yields have only partially offset lower harvested area. Supplies are forecast to increase by 6% due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to decline slightly due to decreased US import demand. As a result of lower US corn prices, oat prices are forecast to fall. US oats are expected to be priced at a premium of 20% to corn on a per tonne basis.
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