North America: Dramatic increase in global barley prices could bring Canada back into export game

As previously reported, Canada and the US barley prices have been tracking on an import parity pricing basis for several months. The global price shock triggered by the events in Ukraine is having a swift and dramatic impact on barley prices in North America, RMI Analytics said in their early March report.

For malting barley, the theoretical pricing approaches USD500/tonne and with no trade. It is expected that the dramatic increase in prices brings Canada back into the export game with the new crop, but, as mentioned, harvest is not until August and shipment availability is only around October-November 2022. Relief from Canada on a global basis should only be expected mostly in 2023 as the lineup for other crops (wheat, canola) will also be great in Q4 2022.

For feed barley, the current market is also moving up sharply with higher US corn futures making imported corn more expensive. Local feed barley in southern Alberta is CAD450/tonne, and US corn CAD460. A month ago, US corn was trading at a CAD25 discount to local barley but presently at a CAD10 premium, a dramatic and quick turnaround.