World: Barley trade forecast for 2021/22 slightly up this month

Though Ukraine and Russia account for about 30 percent of barley exports, global barley trade forecast for 2021/22 is up slightly this month (34.683 vs. 34.113 mln tonnes forecast last month) due to larger supplies from Australia and a slight increase to Canada, USDA said in their March report.

Ukraine barley exports are generally front-loaded after harvest and a majority of the most recent crop has already been shipped, so the effect of port closures on exports is expected to be less severe for barley than for corn.

Australia barley production has been revised upward, increasing exportable supplies, and Canada’s export volume has been stronger than expected despite its drought-affected production. Both forecasts are raised this month (to 9 and 1.8 mln tonnes, respectively).

The world barley production forecast is up this month: at 146.143 mln tonnes versus 145.788 mln in the February report, as crop forecasts are increased for Australia and the EU.

Global barley consumption forecast is only slightly changed (150.24 mln tonnes vs. 150.071 mln last month) and ending stocks are seen at 16.853 mln tonnes versus 16.664 mln tonnes in the February forecast.

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