Australia: Australia’s barley crop estimated at 13.4 – up to 14+ mln tonnes
RMI Analytics’ estimate of Australia’s barley crop remains at 13.4 mln tonnes but some other analysts go as high as 14+ mln tonnes, RMI’s latest report published at the beginning of the month says.
Regardless, Australia stands as the residual supply for both malting and feed barley. As a result, RMI Analytics’ export estimate for Australia’s barley has moved higher in February.
Looking ahead at crop 2022, the moisture profile in eastern Australia continues to look very favourable. As stated previously, good moisture at planting raises the probability of a good crop in eastern Australia while Western Australia needs in crop rain.
Australian barley prices are higher despite the large crop and driven by strong demand as evidenced by Australia exporting 942 thousand tonnes of feed barley in December 2021, the highest level since March 2021. Malting barley exports were low at 19.2 thousand tonnes.
Malting barley destinations are a combination of traditional nations (Japan, Singapore, Vietnam, and Thailand) and non-traditional (Mexico, Peru, Ethiopia, and Ecuador). Asia remains a large customer base for feed barley (nearly 1.45 mln tonnes shipped in July-December 2021) but the Middle East quantities are becoming a substantial component of Aussie barley exports (with over 2 mln tonnes shipped since July 2021).
Port facilities are extremely busy on all crops, particularly wheat and canola, forcing barley to fight for loading slots going forward. Farmers seem prepared to sell at current price levels, providing necessary liquidity for trade activity to continue.
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