North America: Commercial stocks of barley declining in export channels

Commercial stocks of barley are declining in export channels, an indication barley is remaining on farm (or has been delivered to end-users). This allows selections to continue for malting barley quality, RMI Analytics said in their latest November report.

Endings stocks are expected to fall to extremely low levels, with barley imports planned in order to meet malting needs. Corn imports, replacing local feed barley, are ramping up and helping maltsters fight for local barley selections.

Canadian prices are higher, and primarily maintaining a premium over other origins, and France in particular. The local malting barley price is very high (CAD460/tonne, at farm) and at current levels sufficient to justify further imports of barley (e.g. from Australia or Argentina). New crop 2022 prices are indicated at nearly the same CAD460/tonne farm gate level, but still facing strong competition for area from canola and wheat.

Feed barley prices (delivered to Lethbridge in southern Alberta) are CAD435/tonne, and CAD55/tonne above US corn imports (previously the prices were CAD80/tonne lower). As a result, cattle feedlots are converting to corn (replacing feed barley) and will remain on the new ration for the foreseeable future (or until feed barley prices drop), the analysts said.

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