Canada: Barley exports forecast to total 3 mln tonnes both in 2019/20 and 2020/21

For 2019-20, Canadian barley exports are expected to be slightly below the year-earlier level (at 3 mln tonnes) due to lower exports of barley malt while exports of barley grain remain stable. The majority of Canadian barley grain is exported to China, Japan, the United States and Mexico; the major destinations for Canadian malt include the United States, Japan, Mexico and South Korea, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their August report.

Total domestic use of barley is expected to increase significantly, to 6.895 mln tonnes, largely due to strong feed use.

Carry-out stocks are estimated to rise sharply from the historic low of 2018-19 to 1.4 mln tonnes.

Increased barley supplies in Canada and around the world have been weighing on barley prices. The average feed barley price at Lethbridge feedlots fell by 11% from the previous year.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to barley in Canada is marginally higher than the previous crop year and the highest since 2009-10, according to Statistics Canada’s (STC) seeded area survey. Barley area in Alberta, the leading barley grower, is the highest since 2013. In Saskatchewan, another main grower of barley, the area seeded is lower than last year but is still close to the record level set in 2010. Manitoba barley area rose from last year and is on par with the
five year average.

Barley production is forecast to be slightly lower than last year (at 10.3 mln tonnes) and will be the second largest in the last ten years.

Combined with high carry-in stocks, supply is forecast to increase from last year to 11.74 mln tonnes.

Canada’s barley exports are forecast to remain unchanged at 3 mln tonnes.

Domestic use is expected to fall to 6.74 mln tonnes due to lower feed use.

Carry-out stocks are expected to rise to 2 mln tonnes as a result of higher supplies and lower use.

The average price of feed barley for 2020-21 is expected to drop by 10% from 2019-20 due to
strong domestic and world supplies. In addition, large corn supplies in the US and around the world will constrain feed grain prices.

World barley supplies for 2020-21 are expected to fall but remain burdensome, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) largely due to a considerable drop in production in the world major exporting countries. World feed use is forecast to decrease in the world major importers, as users are expected to shift to cheaper corn. The demand for food, seed, and industrial use is forecast to increase marginally. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise only slightly.

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