EU: EU expected to have a good surplus of barley this year
The Mediterranean countries are very likely to be self-sufficient in barley, private Spanish crop forecasts indicate 11 12 mln tonnes of barley this year, H. M. Gauger GmbH said in their June report.
Another good looking region is the northeast, Finland and the Baltic States, they may produce a surplus of 200 thousand tonnes, much of it could end up with the Polish industries, the analysts believe.
Last, but not least, the U.K. is still a member of the Single Market till the end of the year. The country expects a large crop of spring barley and will try to ship a maximum of malting barley to the continent before the deadline of 31 December, possibly up to 500 thousand tonnes. In case of a good after-Brexit agreement trade may even continue next year, but that is uncertain as of today.
While all these estimates are only provisional, they show nevertheless that the EU will have a good surplus, as per the H. M. Gauger GmbH June report, 900 thousand of winter and 1.5 mln tonnes of spring barley. (By the way, China needs imports of 3.0 3.5 mln tonnes of malting barley, from anywhere but Australia).
The EU barley market is not as bearish as it appears upon the first glance. Large brewery groups have started to price their 2021 LTAs, because they deem present price levels attractive.
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