France: France on course to export record amount of soft wheat, barley stocks forecast raised to 1.9 mln tonnes

France is on course to export a record amount of soft wheat outside the EU this season as grain firms overcome logistical snags created by a coronavirus crisis to meet strong demand from countries such as China, farm office FranceAgriMer said.

In monthly supply and demand forecasts on April 15, FranceAgriMer raised its projection of French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in the 2019/20 season to June 30 to 13.2 million tonnes from 12.7 million estimated last month.

The latest forecast is 36.5% above last season’s level and if realised would surpass the record 12.9 million tonnes shipped by France outside the EU in 2010/11 during an export embargo by Russia.

FranceAgriMer, which has now raised its non-EU export outlook for soft wheat in each of the past seven months, said it was moving towards more optimistic projections in the market.

“Our outlook remains prudent but this month takes into account the rather extraordinary flow of soft wheat to China this season,” Marion Duval, deputy head of FranceAgriMer’s grain unit, told reporters.

Coronavirus lockdown measures, which started a month ago and are due to run until May 11, have added costs but grain firms were mostly able to secure lorries and freight trains to bring supplies to ports and other destinations, Jean-Francois Loiseau, head of industry body Intercereales, said during FranceAgriMer’s video conference.

Demand elsewhere had weakened for wheat during the novel coronavirus crisis, FranceAgriMer said.

Domestic French demand for wheat was reduced by 400,000 tonnes compared with last month due to lower demand for bakery goods and crop-based biofuel, the office said.

It also cut expected soft wheat exports within the EU, to 7.7 million tonnes from 8.1 million, with officials citing reduced milling demand elsewhere in Europe plus a shift by livestock feed makers towards cheaper maize.

Soft wheat stocks at the end of the 2019/20 season were pegged at 2.6 million tonnes, up from 2.4 million forecast last month.

FranceAgriMer’s barley stocks forecast was raised to 1.9 million tonnes from 1.8 million.

As for wheat, an increase in barley exports outside the EU was outweighed by reduced intra-EU shipments and a cut to domestic demand, including for malt production affected by a downturn in beer consumption during the crisis.

Expected maize stocks were also increased, to 2.4 million tonnes from 2.3 million, partly due to reduced biofuel demand.

However, supplies of durum wheat were cut sharply as FranceAgriMer factored in increased household demand for pasta during the lockdown.

Its very low forecast of just 29,000 tonnes of end-of-season durum stocks was nonetheless likely to be revised up as in previous seasons once detailed figures on industry use and stocks were available, it added.

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