Canada: For 2004-05, Canada’s barley production is forecast by AAFC to increase by 6% due to higher yields, despite lower seeded area, AAFC posted on November 12. Supplies are expected to rise by 10% due to higher carry-in stocks. Feed use is projected to increase significantly, due to higher supplies in western Canada and increased shipments to eastern Canada. Exports of malting barley are expected to drop significantly as lower crop quality reduces the selection rates, although import demand from China is projected to recover. Exports of feed barley, for the crop year, are also expected to decrease from 2003-04 due to competitions from Europe and relatively low overseas prices, despite increased supplies and low prices in Canada. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase sharply. Off-Board feed barley prices are expected to decrease by about $25/t from 2003-04 to C$110/t, due to increased domestic supplies and lower US corn prices. The CWB October PRO for No.1 CW Feed Barley for the first pool period (August-January) is C$112/t I/S VC/SL, vs. C$168/t for 2003-04. The PRO for Special Select Two Row designated barley is expected to decrease to C$181/t from C$200/t for 2003-04, due to higher supplies in Europe and Australia.

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