EU 2004/2005 barley crop is estimated by analysts at 61-62 million tonnes, domestic demand of feed barley at 37 million tonnes, human consumption (malt) at 11 million tonnes, minimum needed carryover on June 30 was 5.5 million tonnes, free surplus 8-9 million tonnes. Intervention starts on November 1, large applications are expected in Central France, East Germany and landlocked new members countries South Poland / Czech / Slovakia / Hungary. Export restitutions are so far 58,000 tonnes granted at maximum EUR 18.80. As exchange rate US $ / EUR is 1,2756, about EUR 25,- per tonne would be needed to bring EU offers down to par with Black Sea offers.
“Restitution of EUR 18.80 granted, leaves the question of EU strategy fully open: Is it an indication that we do not want to compete in world markets at any price? Is it a slow approach to the right level? It was about EUR 2,- more each week. Or is it meant to discourage sales to intervention, which start this week? Barley holders may wonder now, whether they deliver to intervention right now or wait for better markets, in case big exports get rolling. So much is clear: if EU restitutions remain uncompetitive, world markets must go up. But high barley premiums above feed wheat and maize would also bring out all reserves in competitor countries and induce buyers to use other grains or starch products.”
EU malting barley will be needed to fill the gap of the world’s Supply and Demand. But exchange rates and freight make prices so high that one cannot imagine overseas buyers will pay them, e.g. C+F China US$ 220-225. Surplus on paper was 2.5 million tonnes in EU. Low market prices and quality problems in U.K./Scandinavia will cut real availabilities to 1.5 – max. 2 million tonnes. Domestic markets in France – FOB Creil, basis July 6rw Esterel EUR 100-101, 2rs Scarlett 111-112 - and Germany – 2rs pure varieties, October FCA maltings South Germany EUR 115-118 - are at all-time lows. Danish sellers stick to high levels, Barke, October, FOB seaport EUR 132-. Activity is negligible.
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