China: Barley demand estimated at up to 4.6 mln tonnes of which at least 3.8 must be imported - analysts

China has cut off the supply of Australian malting barley for an unknown period. As per available estimates, China had secured 800 thousand tonnes of Canadian and 1.3 mln tonnes of Australian barley of crop 2018/19 (400 thousand tonnes French barley had been imported early in the season for feed), H. M. Gauger GmbH reported at the beginning of March.

Beer output in 2018 was 381.22 mln hl, requiring approximately 3.1 – 3.3 mln tons of malt. Malt exports were 468 thousand tonnes. Therefore the barley demand is around 4.4 – 4.6 mln tonnes, of which at least 3.8 – 4.0 mln tonnes must be imported, the analyst estimate, so it looks like a gap of 1.5 – 2.0 mln tonnes until reopening of Australian imports or new crop arrivals of Canadian barley.

Supplies are available from Argentina and the EU (French 6-row and French/Danish 2-row), which had been neglected so far being uncompetitive vs. Australian barley.

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