World: USDA projects barley output rise in first forecast for 2018/19
World barley production in 2018/19 is projected up (at 147.572 mln tonnes vs. 142.971 mln tonnes in 2017/18) with gains for the European Union, Australia, and Turkey more than offsetting reductions for Ukraine and Russia, USDA reported on May 10.
Global consumption is forecast down largely due to Ukraine and Russia reacting to more favorable export prospects. 148.431 mln tonnes of barley are forecast to be consumed in the world next season versus 147.2 mln tonnes in 2017/18.
Global trade is projected slightly higher, at 29.37 mln tonnes vs 28.335 mln in 2017/18, driven by steady growth for countries in the Middle East and rising demand from China. China is expected to remain the world’s top importer, as the country turns to barley to partially offset a decline in sorghum imports from the United States. China barley imports are expected to rise 1.3 million tons to 9.5 million, partially offsetting demand for sorghum.
Saudi Arabia barley imports are expected to remain flat (at 8 mln tonnes).
Turkey barley import is projected to fall 500,000 tonnes to 100,000 tonnes on a large crop and a reimposition of barley tariffs. Feed demand is still projected to grow.
EU barley exports are forecast up 800,000 tonnes to 7.0 million reflecting a larger crop and expectations for robust global demand.
Ukraine barley exports are projected down 900,000 tonnes to 4.0 million on smaller crop prospects.
Russia barley export is forecast up 100,000 tonnes to 5.5 million even with a smaller expected crop, due to lower exportable supplies from other major exporters.
Australia barley export is forecast up 1.2 million tonnes to 7.0 million on a large crop and robust demand from Asia, particularly China, and the Middle East.
Canada barley export is forecast down 500,000 tonnes to 1.5 million. Despite a larger expected crop, malting barley volumes are projected to be smaller and ample global supplies increase competition for feed barley exports.
Global ending stocks of barley are set to fall to the lowest since 1983/84 – 17.248 mln tonnes vs. 18.107 mln in 2017/18 and 22.336 mln tonnes in 2016/17.
For 2017/18, USDA raised its forecast for Canada barley exports by 500 thousand tonnes to 2 mln on strong demand, particularly from China. The latter’s barley import forecast is up 1 mln tonnes at 8.2 mln on stronger purchases to date from Australia and Canada.
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