Canada: Statistics Canada expecting drop in wheat, barley, canola production this year

Statistics Canada is expecting to see a drop in production in wheat, barley and canola crops this year, it said in its latest report.

Total wheat production is anticipated at 25.5 million tonnes, down 19.5 per cent from last year. This is due to a projected yield drop of 20.1 per cent.

Canola production is expected to drop by 7.1 per cent to 18.2 million tonnes despite a rise in acres. The decrease in production is being attributed to lower average yields in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Statistics Canada also revised last year's canola production number from 18.4 million tonnes up to 19.6.

Brian Voth, president of IntelliFARM Inc., says canola prices may react later in the season.

"Once you get past corn harvest, and everything's in the bin, and nothing needs to be moved anymore because of space reasons, that's when I think you're really going to start to see those prices react."

Canadian soybean production is anticipated to reach another record high this year (up 19.8 per cent from 2016 to 7.7 million tonnes) due to a large increase in acres. Soybean yields are expected to decrease 10.9 per cent from 2016.

Voth notes some of these numbers could change as we get further into harvest.

"With the way beans have been going here, I know a lot of guys are getting concerned over what bean yields might do given how hot and dry it's been without any real rainfall. Probably by the time we get into beans, some of these numbers might end up being revised a little bit lower on the soybean side."

Canadian farmers expect barley production to fall 17.9 per cent to 7.2 million tonnes in 2017 due to a decrease in both yield and acres. Oat production is expected to rise 15.3 per cent due to a rise in acres. Oat yields are expected to drop by 2.6 per cent.

Corn production is expected to increase slightly (3.4 per cent).

Statistics Canada surveyed 13,300 Canadian farms between July 19 and August 1, 2017.

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