Canada: Barley seeded area down 10% to record low of 2.3 mln ha in 2017/18

For 2016-17, Canada’s total domestic barley use is forecast to increase to 6.226 mln tonnes due to higher industrial use (399 thousand tonnes), Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its August report.

Exports are forecast to decrease by 2%, to 1.95 mln tonnes - the lowest level in 12 year - due to strong competition and lower world feed barley trade. However, malt barley trade remains at trend, Canada’s Ministry of Agriculture said.

Barley carry-out stocks are forecast to increase to a seven-year high of 2.125 mln tonnes, nearly 55% higher than the previous five-year average.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price decreased by nearly 20% from 2015-16 due to the higher feed grain supplies, lower US corn prices and softer world barley prices, it is reported.

For 2017-18, barley-seeded area in Canada decreased by 10% to a record low of 2.3 million hectares due to large barley carry-in stocks and competition for seeded area from other crops.

Production is forecast to decrease by about 20% to 7.1 mln tonnes due to the lower area and lower yields.

Despite high carry-in stocks, the lower production will cause total supply to decrease by about 10% to 9.325 mln tonnes.

Total domestic use is forecast to remain strong (6.125 mln tonnes) due to higher feed use and strong industrial use.

Exports are forecast to increase to 2 mln tonnes due to lower world barley supplies and steady demand.

Barley carry-out stocks are forecast to fall significantly (to 1.2 mln tonnes) and be below the previous five-year average.

The Lethbridge in-store feed barley price is forecast to increase due to the tighter total barley supplies and a higher US corn futures price. Dry, hot weather in July on the Canadian prairies provided the Lethbridge market with a strong late crop year price rally before falling back. By the end July, prices were pressured by the harvest of the early barley crops. Conditions are quite variable across the region.

With a smaller world barley production on the horizon due to large declines in Australia, the EU, Canada and Ukraine, world feed barley prices have increased in value over the past two months reaching US$180/tonne for the first time since December 2015. There was a sharp rise in Australian feed barley prices after a very strong export program depleted supplies. World malt barley prices also continue to firm up and the malt-to-feed spread has strengthened to over US$50/t or higher than the previous five-year average.

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