World: Barley trade forecast slightly up this month - USDA
World barley trade forecast for 2017/18 is little changed this month as a smaller barley crop in the EU reduces exportable supplies, while a larger crop in Ukraine boosts barley export prospects, USDA said in its August report.
The forecast for world barley trade is now pegged at 24.41 mln tonnes vs. 24.21 mln in the July forecast and 28.815 mln forecast for 2016/17.
Ukrainian barley export forecast for the season is boosted 800,000 tonnes to 4.4 million on larger production and expectations of competitive prices relative to other major suppliers.
EU barley export forecast is down 500,000 tonnes to 6.5 million on lower production and projected substantial competition from Ukraine and Russia.
Australian barley export forecast is cut 200,000 tonnes to 5.8 million on smaller exportable supplies. Tighter supplies were a result of higher 2016/17 exports, which are up 300,000 tonnes to 9.3 million on strong Chinese demand.
Russian barley export forecast for 2017/18 is up 200,000 tonnes to 3.8 million on larger production.
Indian barley import forecast is tripled to 300,000 tonnes on expectations of strong demand for imported feed barley from South America.
For 2016/17, Chinese barley import forecast is boosted 300,000 tonnes to 6.5 million on continued strong purchases of Australian barley.
Global barley production forecast for the current season is 140.062 mln tonnes this month vs. 138.531 mln tonnes forecast in July and 147.924 mln in 2016/17.
Total consumption is seen at 145.604 mln tonnes (vs. 144.634 and 149.532 mln, respectively), whereas ending stocks are forecast at 18.171 mln tonnes (17.996 and 23.713 mln, respectively).
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