World: World barley trade forecast slightly down this month
USDA’s July report puts world barley trade in 2017/18 at 24.21 mln tonnes, down from the June forecast of 24.265 mln.
Argentine barley export forecast for the marketing year is cut 300,000 tonnes to 1.8 million reflecting a smaller crop. Russia is expected to ship abroad 3.6 mln tonnes vs. 3.5 mln tonnes in June.
For marketing year 2016/17, Argentine barley exports forecast is up 400,000 tonnes to 2.6 million on stronger sales to Brazil, Colombia, and India. Australian barley export forecast is boosted 300,000 tonnes to 9.0 million on larger production and strong Chinese demand. Russian barley export forecast is cut 200,000 tonnes to 3.2 million spurred by a slow pace of shipments.
As for import forecasts for 2016/17, Algerian barley import forecast is cut 250,000 tonnes to 650,000 on slower purchases with the implementation of the import license requirement. Chinese barley import forecast is boosted 300,000 tonnes to 6.2 million on continued strong purchases from Australia. Libyan barley import forecast is up 200,000 tonnes to 1.0 million on trade to date. Moroccan barley import forecast is trimmed 200,000 tonnes to 400,000 on slower demand as conditions for pasture improved.
World barley production forecast for 2017/18 is up to 138.531 mln tonnes this month vs. 137.472 mln forecast for this season in June and 147.995 mln tonnes forecast for 2016/17. Consumption is expected to reach 144.634 mln tonnes (144.080 mln in June, 149.215 mln in 2016/17), while ending stocks are seen at 17.996 mln tonnes (17.727 and 24.099 mln tonnes, respectively).
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