World: Barley production expected to drop significantly in 2017/18

World barley production is expected to drop significantly in 2017/18 (to 136.972 mln tonnes vs. 147.043 mln in 2016/17) with reduced crops for Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, USDA said in its May report.

Australia’s 2017/18 crop is expected to return to normal conditions (to around 8 mln tonnes) after a record harvest the preceding year (13 mln tonnes). Canada is forecast to harvest 7.6 mln tonnes (vs. 8.8 mln in 2016/17), Kazakhstan 2.5 mln (3.231), Ukraine 7.4 mln tonnes (9.9 mln).

Global trade is forecast lower (at 24.365 mln tonnes vs. 27.945 in 2016/17) with less exportable supplies and prospects for higher prices.

According to the USDA, Saudi Arabia will continue as the world’s largest importer; China is the second largest, importing for both feed and malting purposes. Smaller global imports are expected to be led by subdued demand in China, where competitively priced domestic supplies are expected to limit feed grain imports – China’s barley imports are forecast down 1.4 million tonnes to 4.5 million. Australian barley export is forecast to plummet in 2017/18 2.7 million tons to 6.0 million on a smaller expected crop, as the preceding harvest broke records for both production and yield.

Saudi barley import is forecast down 1.0 million tonnes to 10.0 million, while corn is forecast up 800,000 tonnes to a record 4.5 million. Stronger demand for corn is expected to mostly offset reduced imports of feed barley.

For 2016/17, Australian barley export forecast is raised 600,000 tonnes to 8.7 million with robust demand from China and with competitive prices. Chinese barley import forecast is boosted 500,000 tonnes to 5.9 million reflecting large purchases in recent months from Australia.