World: World barley crop forecast at 144 mln tonnes in 2017/18
The 2017/18 world barley crop forecast in IGC’s latest report is 144 mln tonnes, minus 5 mln tonnes y/y. Trade is expected at 27 mln tonnes for the present and the following crop year, down from levels of 29 mln tonnes in 2014-2016.
As shipments of the seven major barley exporters (e.g. not including India, Kazakhstan, Uruguay) were 15 mln tonnes in July/Jan 2016/17, it looks like a larger than predicted world trade, H. M. Gauger GmbH analysts said in their April report.
Imports of China started well in 2017 and will end up well above the 5 mln tonnes imports of 2016.
SAGO, the state buyer of Saudi Arabia has covered 3 mln tonnes of barley in two tenders for a 4 months period, which indicates an annual import of 9 mln tonnes.
Barley acreages for the crop of 2017/18 will be down in North America and Eastern Europe, very possibly also in the Southern Hemisphere, but yields are bound to increase beyond trends, due to modern farming and the warmer world climate. The large availability of all grains and feedstuffs limits usage of feed barley, even at attractive price differences. USDA and IGC differ on closing stocks from 24 to 30 mln tonnes.
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