Canada: For 2004-05 barley production in Canada is forecast by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) on August 6, 2004, to increase by 5% versus 2003-04 due to higher yields, despite lower seeded area. The production forecasts are based on Statistics Canada's June survey of seeded area and assumptions of near-trend yields and normal abandonment. Due to higher carry-in stocks and production, supplies are expected to rise by 10%. Feed use is projected to increase significantly, due to higher barley supplies in western Canada and increased shipments to eastern Canada. Malting barley exports are expected to rise, as import demand from China returns to normal. Feed barley exports are forecast to fall, due to increased competition from the EU-25, Australia and the Black Sea region. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase. Off-Board feed barley prices are expected to decrease by about $5/t from 2003-04 to $130/t, due to increased domestic barley production and depressed US corn prices. The CWB July PRO for No.1 CW Feed Barley is C$127/t I/S VC/SL, versus C$167/t for 2003-04. The PRO for Special Select Two Row designated barley is C$181/t versus C$200/t for 2003-04, mainly due to higher supplies expected in Europe and Australia.

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