In 2004-2005 world barley production is expected to increase from 2003-2004, as higher production in Europe and Canada more than offsets reduced production in the US and Australia, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Production in the Middle East, except for Saudi Arabia, and North Africa is forecast to decrease from 2003-2004 when very good crops were harvested in these regions. With much of the reduced carry-in stocks offset by higher production, world barley supplies are expected to be close to 2003-2004. However, exportable supplies are forecast to increase from 2003-2004, due to reduced feed demand for barley in Europe. Higher import demand for feed barley in the Middle East and stronger import demand for malting barley in China and, to a lesser degree, in the US are expected to drive world trade up. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase slightly.

In 2004-2005 in Europe, EU barley production is expected to increase by about 7% to 50 Mt due to increased area seeded to barley, as a result of the decrease in the set-aside requirements from 10% to 5% to boost EU grain production. Barley production in the FSU and Eastern Europe is forecast to recover from the weather-affected 2003-2004 to about 35 Mt and 9 Mt, respectively. Increased production in Europe is expected to more than offset lower carry-in stocks of 7.7 Mt for 2004-2005 versus 16.2 Mt for 2003-2004. As a result, barley supplies in Europe are forecast to increase. Demand in Europe is expected to decrease as barley is replaced by other feed grains, such as wheat and corn, which experienced a significant decrease in production in 2003-2004. Barley exports from Europe, especially feed barley exports from the FSU, are forecast to increase, which is expected to pressure world feed barley prices significantly. The EU is expected to compete more aggressively with Australia and Canada in the world malting barley market, such as China, which depresses two row malting barley prices. EU barley subsidies are not expected to play a major role in the world barley market in 2004-2005.

In Australia, barley production in 2004-2005 is expected to decrease slightly from 2003-2004 while supplies are expected to increase due to significantly higher carry-in stocks. Larger Australian barley supplies are forecast to continue to depress world barley, especially malting barley, prices in 2004-2005.

The average US PNW feed barley price for 2004-2005 is forecast to decrease to US$120/t from US$130/t expected for 2003-2004. Production recovery in Europe, especially in the FSU and Eastern Europe, is expected to depress EU feed barley prices to the equivalent of US$130/t from US$150/t expected for 2003-2004.

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