UK: All barley intervention stocks had been sold
UK barley production forecast for 2006-2007 is increased by 62,000t to 5.239Mt, according to Supply & Demand report published by Defra and Home-Grown Cereals Authority (HGCA) on March 1. No changes have been made to opening stocks or imports compared to January’s estimate. Total availability stands at 6.211Mt, down 4% on last season.
“H&I (human & industrial) use in the barley sector has been left unchanged at 1.682Mt, down 2% on last season. The forecast for H&I usage of maize has been lowered from the December forecast by 30,000t to 0.767Mt (up 2% on last season). H&I use in the oats sector has been increased by 30,000t from December at 0.411Mt (17% higher than last season).
Animal feed usage of barley has been increased by 7,000t from the December estimate to 3.086Mt, very similar to last season. Maize usage in the feed sector is unchanged at 0.434Mt (up 8% on last season) while oats usage is seen 1,000t higher at 0.234Mt (up 15% on last season).
There are no revisions to seed usage for wheat, although barley usage is revised 8,000t lower, to 0.135Mt, down 6% on last season, reflecting lower seed sowing rates.
Barley usage by retail compounders was 0.374Mt to end- December, up 114,000t (44%) on last season. Poultry integrated units barley usage was 68,000t, up 26,000t (60%) on last season.
UK barley exports and intervention are raised by 63,000t from the previous estimate, to 0.400Mt but still 40% down on last season. Closing stocks remain set at the three season average of 0.882Mt.
Maltsters and distillers barley usage, at 0.834Mt, was 12,000t lower (1%) on last season. H&I maize usage was 0.387Mt, down 4,000t (1%), while H&I oat usage was 0.200Mt, up 30,000t (18%). Maltsters and Distillers barley stocks were 0.845Mt, down 39,000t (4%) on last season.
All barley intervention stocks had been sold, although at the end of December, 4,000t was still to be
moved from storage. This compared to 26,000t of barley for the same point last season.
Since the December estimate, cereal availability has been revised upwards, partly due to higher final UK cereal production estimates. With 6 months of data now available usage trends are starting to emerge but relatively few changes to the balance sheet estimates have been needed. This estimate reflects the information available to the end of February 2007. The next review is scheduled for 30th April 2007.
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