EU: Estimates of new crop malting barley acreage are different in different EU countries
France is changing its variety of six-row winter barley; Esterel will be sharply reduced and partly replaced by Cervoise. Also two-row winter barley Vanessa plantings will be less than in past years, according to analysts. Therefore France may produce altogether much less winter malting barley. However, French farmers, who harvested a reasonably good crop of spring barley in 2006 and who find the new crop price levels of EUR 160,- ex farm attractive, will grow possibly up to 10 % more spring barley, in the Champagne even 15 % more.
One forecast for the UK is: 2 % more winter barley, but the share of malting varieties will drop from 45 to 35 %, 2 % less spring barley, but the share of malting varieties will increase from 70 to 80 %. This expectation is, of course, preliminary, but it could lead to a small increase of malting barley production.
A forecast for Germany is particularly difficult, as there are negative opinions citing the attractiveness of grain production for bio-energy and optimistic voices saying that farmers are attracted by the good prices of malting barley after all. Germany is by far the largest producer of bio-diesel and bio-gas in the EU. Present conclusion is an acreage between unchanged and 5 % less.
Danish farmers planted 60,000 ha more rapeseed in autumn, an acreage, which is missing for spring grains (unless winter kill happens). Denmark is estimated to plant at least 10 % equal 50,000 ha less spring barley.
Sweden and the Czech Republic may possibly come up with larger acres and a small surplus of malting barley. Marginal countries, whose surplus is usually mentioned in statistics, e.g. Finland, the Baltic countries, Slovakia, Hungary and Ireland, will in reality not matter much in this year's EU supply and demand picture. An improvement of EU malting supplies will hardly come from a larger acreage, but only from better yields and qualities.
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