Argentina: Barley crop forecast remains at 5 mln tonnes

RMI Analytics’ barley crop’24 forecast for Argentina remains at 5.0 mln tonnes, leaving sufficient malting barley for South American demand, plus an exportable surplus for global markets, even with some quality variability.

Crop’24 export licences total 1.93 mln tonnes (year ago 1.86 mln), while filings have increased in the past weeks. Looking ahead to crop’25, production drops a bit to 4.9 mln tonnes.

Soil moisture conditions are dry in southern Buenos Aires province, but rain has fallen in Santa Fe and Cordoba to help corn/soybeans, but also improving crop’25 moisture levels.

FOB prices are up for malting barley despite a continued lack of demand, and up slightly for feed in step with the global trend. Interestingly, the bigger price action is firmer FAS (farmer) prices, especially for malting barley. The re-establishment of a wider malting premium is important for crop’25 planted area and still in crop’24, where 60% of barley is viewed as malting quality.