Canada: Tight barley supply may lead to more US corn imports in Canada

Trade, tariffs and Trump have dominated the agricultural news headlines for the first five weeks of 2025, The Western Producer reported on February 13.

Lost in the all the noise is that corn futures have climbed and are now trading around US$5 per bushel.

The March corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was above US$4.90 per bu. during the first week of February.

Meanwhile, the May futures contract has topped $5 per bu. – its highest level since the fall of 2023.

Mike Jubinville, senior markets analyst with Glacier MarketsFarm, noticed in January that corn was gaining momentum.

“The corn market lifting off its lows and coming up to one-year highs,” Jubinville said at Manitoba Ag Days in Brandon last month.

“If this thing (corn) seems to be making a move, will it drag the other commodities, oilseeds and wheat with it?”

Considering the uncertainly around U.S. president Donald Trump and American trade policies, it’s nearly impossible to predict the future trajectory for commodity markets.

However, there was positive news for corn and the larger market for feed grains on Feb. 6.

The Mexican government changed its position on genetically modified corn imports, saying measures to prohibit the use of GM corn in Mexico were “ineffective.”

Mexico unveiled those measures in February 2023 in a presidential”corn decree” that included an immediate ban on the use of GM corn in dough and tortillas. As well, there was an instruction to Mexican government agencies to gradually eliminate the use of GM corn for other food uses and livestock feed.

Mexico’s change in policy is significant for American corn growers because it’s the largest export market for U.S. corn.

“Today’s action (by Mexico) safeguards approximately $5.6 billion in U.S. corn exports to Mexico,” said the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

It’s likely that cattle feeders in Western Canada will need more U.S. corn in 2025 because barley supplies are down on the Prairies.

A Statistics Canada grain stocks report, released Feb. 7, says that barley supplies have declined from last winter.

“Barley stocks decreased 9.2 per cent year over year to five million tonnes as of Dec. 31, 2024.”

Canada produced a small barley crop in 2024, with Statistics Canada pegging its size at 8.1 million tonnes. That’s 13 per cent below the five-year average.

However, “domestic use is projected to rise from last year.” Statistics Canada added.

“A tighter scenario shaping up in terms of overall supply in our barley market,” Jubinville said last month.

Combined with a smaller crop, Canadian barley exports have been steady since the beginning of the 2024-25 crop year.

Statistics Canada estimates exports at 1.48 million tonnes for barley grain and barley products as of Dec. 31.

Canadian barley is priced competitively with Russian, French and Australian barley, which is driving international sales, Jubinville said.

“We’re seeing that reflected in a good export program to start the marketing year. I think we’ll probably do 2.5 million tonnes of barley exports, this year.”

With a small domestic crop and relatively strong exports, barley inventories will tighten up in Western Canada.

Cattle feeders in Alberta will turn to the U.S. for corn to replace barley in rations, Jubinville said.

“Corn imports this marketing year have been relatively slow, maybe 500,000 to 600,000 tonnes so far,” he said in Brandon.

“I suspect we’re going to need to import, about two million tonnes of U.S. corn this year. The bulk of that is going to be back-loaded into the second half of the marketing year.”

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