World: Barley crop 2025 forecast at 145.1 mln tonnes

Southern hemisphere barley harvest in Argentina has wrapped up, bringing a close to crop’24 and turning the focus increasingly to crop’25. RMI Analytics’ current crop’25 forecast is for a rebound in barley production of +3.3 mln tonnes to 145.1 mln tonnes, the analysts said in their latest report.

Much of this production rebound comes from a return to normal yields and quality in regions where 2024 was challenging, including French winter barley and South Australia. However, despite this expected increase in production, the fact remains that total global demand for barley (both malting and feed) continues to exceeds supply. The result is a tightening global barley balance sheet, as evidenced by the further decline in ending stocks.

Any increase in barley demand is coming entirely from the feed sector, where stronger corn prices are expected to shift some animal feed demand to barley. Meanwhile, the continued weak brewing demand environment is reducing malting barley requirements and partially offsetting the feed demand growth.

The major market price moves are firmness in Australia as a post-harvest rally develops, while Canada moves downward to improve competitiveness. Argentina reports that feed barley demand (Saudi) is firming feed prices, but the malting barley market is very quiet, with 60% of the crop being selectable for malting barley quality. French export prices are up a small degree in USD terms, despite domestic prices being lower. The result is a much more consolidated FOB price structure globally for malting barley. Feed barley prices are supported by firmer corn prices.

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