Australia: Western Australia lifts estimate for grains harvest

Western Australia is expected to produce 17.75 million tonnes (Mt) of winter crop from the harvest now under way, according to the Grain Industry Association of WA monthly report released on October 18.

This figure is up from 16.86Mt seen by GIWA in its September report, and report author Michael Lamond said that the WA crop now being in the 17M-18Mt range is a remarkable result given a season characterised by very low rainfall, with the notable exception of the Geraldton region.

“Grain production out of the Geraldton port zone will become clearer at the start of harvest as the divergence between the excellent crops in the low-rainfall east and the poorer crops in the normally higher-rainfall west is large and difficult to estimate at the moment,” Mr Lamond said.

WA’s growing season is quickly coming to a close, and Mr Lamond said the finish has been too quick for many.

“While rain in early October has helped later-maturing wheat and canola crops, the rain arrived too late for most.

“Disappointingly, grain yields will not reach the potential that was expected earlier in the spring, but this is not the case for all growers, as there are some excellent areas interspersed amongst the poorer areas.

“The time of rainfall, together with soil type will be everything this year.

“Regions that received rainfall at critical grain fill windows are going to yield substantially more than those that didn’t.

“This has combined with subtle differences in soil types to result in significant variability in results within regions.

Mr Lamond said the lack of subsoil moisture at the start of the growing season was always going to require regular top-ups to ensure crops hit average yields.

“While the rainfall in July and August kept crops in good shape, the lack of rain in September put a hard stop on the state’s yield potential.

“This has turned around recently with milder temperatures and rainfall and has resulted in a lift in grain yield potential for most regions of the state since the September Crop Report.

The GIWA report said much of the crop emerged late due to the absence of autumn rain and most of the wheat crop was way too green and flowered too late for a normal year.

“Ironically these late crops, particularly the wheat, have benefited the most from the recent rain, and despite most having already shed grain-fill sites in the heads, the grain sites that remained are now filling well and will contribute to a rebound in tonnage from estimates a month ago.”

Mr Lamond said water-use efficiencies will be in the top few percentiles for many crops in many regions of the state.

“Due to the wheat crops adjusting to the dry spring by dropping tillers and leaf area, the late rain will have a positive impact on grain size, and we may not see a large kick in screenings as was expected a few weeks ago.”

The improvement in wheat crops has and will have the greatest impact on final tonnage for WA, with this month’s estimate at 9.91Mt being up 610,000t from the September estimate.

“The current estimated tonnage could still climb if the current conditions continue for another week to 10 days.

“Most barley crops were too advanced to benefit from the late rain and, despite being less exposed to the dry September, it is expected that a high proportion of the production will struggle to meet the malting standards due to lower retention rates from the very dry grain fill period.

“It is expected that canola crops will benefit a little from the late rain in the central and southern higher-rainfall regions, and this is reflected in an increase in tonnage estimates in this report.

“Lupin crops that did not get eaten by grubs have hung on and will yield more than estimated a month ago.

“Oat tonnage for grain in the traditional oat-growing regions is driven more by an increase in hectares rather than yield as whilst there are likely to be some very good-yielding oat crops, there is a big dry hole from east of Narrogin down to Dumbleyung, where a lot of the state’s oats are grown.”

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