Argentina: Barley crop development on very good pathway in Argentina

Crop conditions continue to advance on a very good pathway in Argentina, with further recent rain, adding to the ideal growing season conditions. On top of the key region of southern Buenos Aires Province in Argentina receiving a good boost in moisture, other regions in southern Brazil, Uruguay, and Chile have received rainfall (in some cases very heavy rain), RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

The experts’ crop estimate for barley in Argentina has already factored in the excellent conditions, so the crop size forecast stays at 5.2 mln tonnes, with local estimates at similar levels of 5.0-5.1 mln tonnes.

Under excellent conditions, farmers are considering a third fertilizer application to help influence protein levels and secure malting barley quality. The malting barley premium is reasonable and dramatically influences the farmers’ margin for barley.

Despite the favourable crop development, farmers are still not active sellers of new crop quantities, which remains mostly a non-issue since demand has not really been present in the market. FOB prices are steady, as buyers continue to bid at lower values, while the local trade faces limited farmer liquidity. A feed cargo to Saudi Arabia is rumoured to have taken place at the values indicated but otherwise trade activity is limited. As an example of the liquidity challenge was an interest for a feed/FAQ cargo (China) that did not trade, as traders could only collect quantities of 5-10 thousand tonne.

Reported export licence registrations are 3.02 mln tonnes for crop’23 (total crop 4.9 mln tonnes), with 65% being Feed/FAQ and 35% as malting barley. After local demand of 1.6 mln tonnes, there is still ~0.3 mln tonnes of old crop left to market. Furthermore, the registrations for crop’24 are extremely low, leaving almost all export volumes unsold.

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