Argentina: Barley crop forecast unchanged at 5.2 mln tonnes

Southern Buenos Aires Province received a bit of moisture, and beneficial rainfall is forecast on a wider basis over the next week. This would add further positivity to the crop’s development. RMI Analytics’ production forecast for Argentinean barley remains at 5.2 mln tonnes which aligns to private estimates, with the prospects for a good malting barley quality crop result remaining high.

Despite these good prospects, farmers remain reluctant sellers, as current prices result in very low margins or even negative margins (e.g. feed barley).

For FOB price levels, there is little change, with old crop’s premium declining slightly, and FAS prices for FAQ barley aligning. Otherwise, the lack of farmer selling remains a limiting factor to export trade, but demand is light as well.