Canada: 2023-24 barley use forecast on par with the year prior

For 2023-24, Canada’s total domestic barley use is forecast at 5.9 million tonnes (Mt), relatively on par with the year prior, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their August report.

Total barley exports, including grain exports and product exports (grain equivalent), are projected at 3.1 Mt, down sharply year-over-year (y/y) due to lower supplies as a result of drought impacting production on the Prairies.

Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.65 Mt, down 8% and 14% from the previous year and the five-year average, respectively, but still higher than the record low of 0.54 Mt in 2021-22.

The Lethbridge feed barley average price for 2023-24 is finalized at C$314/tonne (/t).

For 2024-25, Canadian farmers seeded 2.58 million hectares (Mha) of barley according to Statistics Canada’s (STC) June 2024 Field Crop Survey.

Seeded area is down 13% y/y and 15% lower than the five-year average. By province, approximately 55% of the barley area was seeded in Alberta, 36% in Saskatchewan, 5% in Manitoba, and the remainder in other provinces.

The average yield for 2024-25 is forecast down from last month to 3.35 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), marginally below average, due to extended periods of hot and dry conditions throughout July in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Consequently, production has been lowered to 7.9 Mt, lower than the previous year by 11% and 16% below average.

With lower carry-in stocks and the anticipated lower production, total supply is forecast down y/y at 8.6 Mt, 17% below average. Exports have been lowered from last month to 2.75 Mt, down 12% y/y and 19% lower than average. Carry-out stocks are forecast at a record-low of 0.5 Mt, down 30% from average.

The 2023-24 Lethbridge average price is projected at C$290/t, continuing its downward trend from the historical highs seen in 2021-22 and 2022-23.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised their domestic 2024-25 barley yield estimate in their latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Despite yield increasing, production was forecast slightly lower on reduced planted area and harvested area; it is projected at 3.24 Mt, down 19% from the estimate for 2023-24. The farm price projection is unchanged from last month at US$289/t, notably lower than last year.

Globally, the International Grains Council (IGC) has made a downward revision to its monthly barley forecast for 2024-25, reflecting lower output from Canada, the EU, and the US. At 148.4 Mt, this is an increase y/y, owing to a return to average yields. Replenished stocks in major exporting countries put global ending stocks up 7% y/y while trade is anticipated to contract 5% on lower demand from China.

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