Australia: Barley crop forecast up 0.3 mln tonnes

In general, Australia’s barley crop development remains on a good path, with some further rains, more in Western Australia and to a lesser degree across South Australia, Victoria, and New South Wales. This sets up Western Australia for a potentially good result, and a solid moisture profile remains in New South Wales and eastern Victoria. While South Australia, and western Victoria, which previously received beneficial rainfall, have an immediate need for further moisture. Temperatures have been normal to slightly above, avoiding the risk of frost damage to the crop but add a bit of stress to drier regions, RMI Analytics said in their early August report.

All thing considered, the improved Western Australia situation has led to an increase in RMI Analytics’ barley crop estimate for Australia, 0.3 mln tonnes to 12.3 mln tonnes, with the increase coming from Western Australia and New South Wales.

Although China’s barley imports dropped in June (~820 thousand tonnes), the expectation is Australia’s export pace remains strong, as shown by the current vessel situation, where 250 thousand tonnes are in the line-up. With the larger crop, RMI’s barley crop’24 exports forecast is up by 0.2 mln tonnes and driven entirely by China’s import demand.