Argentina: Further rain benefitting barley crop development

Further rain is benefitting the barley crop as planting proceeds across Argentina and more rain is in the forecast, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

Soybean harvest is estimated ~95% complete, and opens the door for an advance in barley seeding, which is currently estimated at ~60% completed. Expected barley planted area is 1.10-1.15 mln ha, and with wheat prices sharply lower, barley area should hold. RMI’s barley crop 2024 forecast remains at 5.0 mln tonnes.

Farmer selling remains very limited: crop’23, 40% still to sell (2.3 mln tonnes), and crop’24 only ~70 thousand tonnes sold (4.9 mln tonnes open).

Prices are mixed: malting down and feed holding steady amidst no farmer selling. A rumoured IMF/Argentina extension of government’s debt-financing could eliminate the current blend of official/unofficial exchange rates on export price calculations. Farmers view such a currency change as favourable to FAS prices, and could trigger further selling if realized.

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